Alabama Election Results: Roy Moore and Doug Jones Compete for Senate Seat

CANDIDATE PARTY VOTES PCT.
Doug Jones Democrat 0 0.0%
Roy Moore Republican 0 0.0
Total Write-Ins 0 0.0

First results expected around 8:15 p.m. Eastern.

Alabama votes on Tuesday in a special election to fill the Senate seat vacated by Jeff Sessions, now the attorney general. The last polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. Strong support for Roy S. Moore, the Republican, is expected in rural, mostly white parts of the state and in its northern half. The Democrat, Doug Jones, aims to create a lead in the urban counties that include Birmingham and Montgomery, and across a band of largely black counties.

One critical battleground is a trio of smaller, whiter cities: Mobile, Tuscaloosa and Huntsville. Mr. Moore won a hard race in 2012 by keeping things close there. Mr. Jones hopes to win the cities by a convincing margin.

Live Estimates of the Final Vote

Updated at 3:56:39 PM ET

Our estimates are based on the results reported so far, the results of previous elections and demographic data. Unlike reported results, they attempt to account for precincts that have not yet reported their votes. The shaded area in the gauge below shows the range of our forecasts.

Right now, our most likely estimates span Jones +15 to Moore +15Our model starts with the assumption that the race is tied and updates as the vote is counted. The more we know, the narrower our range will be.

ESTIMATED MARGIN, in pct. points

Even

REPORTED MARGINNo reported leader

D+14D+13D+12D+11D+10D+9D+8D+7D+6D+5D+4D+3D+2D+1R+1R+2R+3R+4R+5R+6R+7R+8R+9R+10R+11R+12R+13R+14Median forecast

CHANCE OF WINNING

Tossup

REPORTED MARGINNo reported leader

VERY LIKELYLIKELYLEANINGTOSSUPVERY LIKELYLIKELYLEANING

Below, our best guess for how many votes both candidates will end up with when all votes are counted…

CANDIDATE ESTIMATED VOTES
Jones

48.9%

Remaining
Moore

48.9%

Remaining
Write-Ins

1.8%

…and where those votes will come from:

Reported Vote Margin
MobileHuntsvilleMontgomeryBirminghamMobileHuntsvilleMontgomeryBirmingham

No votes have been counted.

Estimated Votes Remaining
MobileHuntsvilleMontgomeryBirminghamMobileHuntsvilleMontgomeryBirmingham

We think about 1.3 million votes remain to be counted. This is a very rough guess.

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