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First results expected around 8:15 p.m. Eastern.
Alabama votes on Tuesday in a special election to fill the Senate seat vacated by Jeff Sessions, now the attorney general. The last polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. Strong support for Roy S. Moore, the Republican, is expected in rural, mostly white parts of the state and in its northern half. The Democrat, Doug Jones, aims to create a lead in the urban counties that include Birmingham and Montgomery, and across a band of largely black counties.
One critical battleground is a trio of smaller, whiter cities: Mobile, Tuscaloosa and Huntsville. Mr. Moore won a hard race in 2012 by keeping things close there. Mr. Jones hopes to win the cities by a convincing margin.
Live Estimates of the Final Vote
Our estimates are based on the results reported so far, the results of previous elections and demographic data. Unlike reported results, they attempt to account for precincts that have not yet reported their votes. The shaded area in the gauge below shows the range of our forecasts.
Right now, our most likely estimates span Jones +15 to Moore +15. Our model starts with the assumption that the race is tied and updates as the vote is counted. The more we know, the narrower our range will be.
VERY LIKELYLIKELYLEANINGTOSSUPVERY LIKELYLIKELYLEANING
Below, our best guess for how many votes both candidates will end up with when all votes are counted…
…and where those votes will come from:
No votes have been counted.
We think about 1.3 million votes remain to be counted. This is a very rough guess.